A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."