🔗 Share this article

A mere two months prior that the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager berated him over missing a through-ball. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his performances were a sign or the source of the team's broader struggles.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

This weekend, though, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. When Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win and after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Challengers?

That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, even as the positive results have accumulated.

Per the data, twice all season has the side posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club that have strung together 10 in a row, Villa look strangely fragile – however at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with two precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.

The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the upright from a wide position. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.

Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain blasting the ball into the top corner forever.

Potential for Growth

Could it be an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.

• Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
• The attacking talent might become the player he was in Germany.
• The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.

Savoring the Moment

But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.

The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When Rogers faced the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.